CUP YTD
5-6 +4.60 units (Match-Ups)
3-4 -0.90 units (Props)
0-7 -2.77 units (Outrights)
Total: +0.93 unit
To me the real racing year gets under way today...I just don't like plate racing or the boring track at California....although both races this year were better than in recent years.
This is a big race for a lot of teams in trouble early...Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, or Ryan Newman don't have a finish better than 20th. Newman and Kahne could actually be in danger of not being in the Top 35 if their fortunes don't change.
Should be interesting........
Match-Ups
2.00 units Carl Edwards (+115) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Like this one for a few reasons.
1) Strong Roush track with (collectively the last 5 races) 13 Top 10, 6 Top 5, and 2 wins.
2) Roush cars have looked a lot better at the start of this season as compared to last year.
3) Carl looked really good in final practice with the 2nd best overall speed( 181.283 28 total laps).
4) Despite being fast, this place has bit Kurt the last 3 races (finishing 23rd, 38th and 26th)
5) Kurt only had the 33rd best overall average practice speed in Happy Hour.
My gut tells me its time for a Top 5 or better run from the Quack Machine.
2.00 units Greg Biffle (-135) over Jeff Burton (@5dimes)
Another Roush driver with some of the same reasoning as above. Good track for Biff, very good in qualifying and practice and a strong start to the season.
Burton has also started the year well and has very good history here but has struggled alot this weekend in practice. Ran the most laps of anyone in final practice (45) was 34th overall and only had the 30th best single lap. Sounds to me like they're having trouble finding speed and/or set-up.
Burton and crew chief Todd Barrier may dial it in during the race but they may start the race with questions and that gives an advantage with Biffle.
2.00 units Joey Logano (-115) over Dale Jr. (@sportsbook.com)
I think Logano is a darkhorse today. Adapted to this track really well, ran 13th last year in only his 3rd career Cup start, has improved a ton since then. Ran 5th last week and was very good in qualifying and practice.
This has been a good track for Jr. (10th and 2nd last 2Y) but his luck is dreadful and not convinced his car is as good as Logano's today.
2.00 unit Mark Martin (-125) over Jeff Gordon (@thegreek)
This maybe the man to watch out for. Definite Top 3. 3rd in Happy Hour and 1st in overall average speed. The 24 should finally get a good finish today but beating his teammate will be a chore.
1.00 unit Kasey Kahne (+125) over Jeff Burton (@thegreek)
Already mentioned why I'm anti-Burton today.
Kahne has been strong in both races so far but bad luck has been his un-doing. Look for a focused effort from these guys.
1.00 unit Juan Montoya (+115) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Simply stated think JPM is Top 5 potential...already talked about Kurt
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+115) over Clint Bowyer (@sportsbook.com)
Very consistent Kenseth on a strong Roush track...great chance for Top 10 or better. Bowyer and all the RCR teams have started off great but I have questions about the way they ran in practice yesterday. Bowyer had the fastest single lap in final practice but seemed to tail off quickly.
Props
1.00 unit Kurt Busch (-105) over 9.5 (@sportsbook.com)
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (-110) under 10.5 (@5dimes)
1.00 unit Juan Montoya (-115) under 9.5 (@5dimes)
0.50 unit Mark Martin (+400) to win group (@thegreek)
over Johnson/Kyle/Gordon/Kurt
Outs
0.75 unit Mark Martin (+900) @5dimes
0.33 unit Carl Edwards (+2000) @thegreek
0.33 unit Greg Biffle (+1400) @thegreek
0.33 unit Matt Kenseth (+2000) @thegreek
0.20 unit Joey Logano (+3000) @thegreek.com
Good luck to everyone!
5-6 +4.60 units (Match-Ups)
3-4 -0.90 units (Props)
0-7 -2.77 units (Outrights)
Total: +0.93 unit
To me the real racing year gets under way today...I just don't like plate racing or the boring track at California....although both races this year were better than in recent years.
This is a big race for a lot of teams in trouble early...Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, or Ryan Newman don't have a finish better than 20th. Newman and Kahne could actually be in danger of not being in the Top 35 if their fortunes don't change.
Should be interesting........
Match-Ups
2.00 units Carl Edwards (+115) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Like this one for a few reasons.
1) Strong Roush track with (collectively the last 5 races) 13 Top 10, 6 Top 5, and 2 wins.
2) Roush cars have looked a lot better at the start of this season as compared to last year.
3) Carl looked really good in final practice with the 2nd best overall speed( 181.283 28 total laps).
4) Despite being fast, this place has bit Kurt the last 3 races (finishing 23rd, 38th and 26th)
5) Kurt only had the 33rd best overall average practice speed in Happy Hour.
My gut tells me its time for a Top 5 or better run from the Quack Machine.
2.00 units Greg Biffle (-135) over Jeff Burton (@5dimes)
Another Roush driver with some of the same reasoning as above. Good track for Biff, very good in qualifying and practice and a strong start to the season.
Burton has also started the year well and has very good history here but has struggled alot this weekend in practice. Ran the most laps of anyone in final practice (45) was 34th overall and only had the 30th best single lap. Sounds to me like they're having trouble finding speed and/or set-up.
Burton and crew chief Todd Barrier may dial it in during the race but they may start the race with questions and that gives an advantage with Biffle.
2.00 units Joey Logano (-115) over Dale Jr. (@sportsbook.com)
I think Logano is a darkhorse today. Adapted to this track really well, ran 13th last year in only his 3rd career Cup start, has improved a ton since then. Ran 5th last week and was very good in qualifying and practice.
This has been a good track for Jr. (10th and 2nd last 2Y) but his luck is dreadful and not convinced his car is as good as Logano's today.
2.00 unit Mark Martin (-125) over Jeff Gordon (@thegreek)
This maybe the man to watch out for. Definite Top 3. 3rd in Happy Hour and 1st in overall average speed. The 24 should finally get a good finish today but beating his teammate will be a chore.
1.00 unit Kasey Kahne (+125) over Jeff Burton (@thegreek)
Already mentioned why I'm anti-Burton today.
Kahne has been strong in both races so far but bad luck has been his un-doing. Look for a focused effort from these guys.
1.00 unit Juan Montoya (+115) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Simply stated think JPM is Top 5 potential...already talked about Kurt
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+115) over Clint Bowyer (@sportsbook.com)
Very consistent Kenseth on a strong Roush track...great chance for Top 10 or better. Bowyer and all the RCR teams have started off great but I have questions about the way they ran in practice yesterday. Bowyer had the fastest single lap in final practice but seemed to tail off quickly.
Props
1.00 unit Kurt Busch (-105) over 9.5 (@sportsbook.com)
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (-110) under 10.5 (@5dimes)
1.00 unit Juan Montoya (-115) under 9.5 (@5dimes)
0.50 unit Mark Martin (+400) to win group (@thegreek)
over Johnson/Kyle/Gordon/Kurt
Outs
0.75 unit Mark Martin (+900) @5dimes
0.33 unit Carl Edwards (+2000) @thegreek
0.33 unit Greg Biffle (+1400) @thegreek
0.33 unit Matt Kenseth (+2000) @thegreek
0.20 unit Joey Logano (+3000) @thegreek.com
Good luck to everyone!
